Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 4.636103 5.546112 6.558773 7.765059 9.158461 10.712936 12.573646
2025-02-16 3.195490 4.321043 5.705526 7.516793 9.804947 12.579010 16.173668
2025-02-23 2.280047 3.434964 4.984427 7.178321 10.161287 14.026925 19.357293
2025-03-02 1.673002 2.781305 4.388703 6.827916 10.360055 15.200702 22.226511
2025-03-09 1.333926 2.419914 4.105891 6.820658 10.965279 16.913626 25.914534
2025-03-16 1.089882 2.144366 3.886920 6.846763 11.582247 18.658054 29.756718
2025-03-23 0.895228 1.903925 3.672317 6.829200 12.101571 20.272179 33.506983
2025-03-30 0.702273 1.619434 3.327929 6.534957 12.124975 21.104000 36.110657
2025-04-06 0.587801 1.458330 3.170199 6.528570 12.603389 22.665604 39.935539
2025-04-13 0.490097 1.307691 3.003343 6.475211 12.981986 24.077874 43.603201
2025-04-20 0.449139 1.272280 3.054918 6.832346 14.113916 26.818639 49.615235
2025-04-27 0.401765 1.210441 3.040769 7.055836 15.016165 29.223853 55.211450
2025-05-04 0.365468 1.169887 3.070462 7.380797 16.158603 32.165114 61.976203
2025-05-11 0.310120 1.065557 2.941154 7.359646 16.634366 33.958851 66.880113
2025-05-18 0.250299 0.930955 2.716075 7.099386 16.605721 34.825559 70.195718
2025-05-25 0.198531 0.802642 2.479685 6.775970 16.406476 35.346390 72.904492
2025-06-01 0.169951 0.737650 2.390654 6.776823 16.878812 37.167086 78.096432
2025-06-08 0.146749 0.682925 2.318084 6.805540 17.410152 39.133268 83.669282
2025-06-15 0.125492 0.627534 2.232483 6.789005 17.836879 40.915985 88.989877
2025-06-22 0.099843 0.544774 2.049616 6.496572 17.607486 41.352530 91.729259
2025-06-29 0.085634 0.502604 1.979924 6.490322 18.036011 43.163928 97.259036
2025-07-06 0.072527 0.459443 1.897628 6.437269 18.346251 44.744255 102.410765
2025-07-13 0.068977 0.459679 1.958374 6.792614 19.676795 48.574664 112.295513